Svante Arrhenius was the first to claim global warming to be due to “green house” gas emissions in 1896. A Swedish scientist who suggested the effects of fossil fuel on enhanced global warming. This finding was a by-product of research on the possible impacts of carbon dioxide on the great Ice Ages by Arrhenius and Chamberlin. The topic was forgotten for a very long time and it was thought than human influences were insignificant compared to the natural warming of the earth’s atmosphere by solar activity and ocean circulation. The oceans were thought to cancel out the atmospheric pollution by being carbon sinks and that water vapor was seen as a much more influential greenhouse gas.

Since 1940’s research on carbon dioxide started to expand with developments in infrared spectroscopy and impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide and water vapor on the absorption of heat. In the 1950’s and 1960’s it became clear that the ocean could never be a complete sink of carbon dioxide and the atmospheric lifetime of carbon dioxide was estimated to be about 10 years. Quantitative data that the oceans absorb nearly a third of man-made carbon dioxide was made possible by carbon-14. This radio-isotope can trace the time-space dynamics of atmospheric carbon dioxide, i.e. both natural and artificial.

In 1950’s and early 1960’s Charles Keeling used the most modern technologies to produce concentration curves for atmospheric carbon dioxide in Antarctica and Mauna Loa. The curves showed a downward trend of global annual temperature from the 1940’s to the 1970’s and it was first feared that a new ice age might be near. In the 1980’s, the global annual mean temperature curve started to rise and began to increase so steeply in late 1980’s, an upcoming new ice age was strongly questioned and the global warming theory began to win terrain fast. In 1988 it was finally acknowledged that climate was warmer than any period since 1880 and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded. In 1990’s scientists started to question the greenhouse effect theory, because of major uncertainties in the data sets and model outcomes. So far not many measures have been taken to remove all the uncertainties in climate change. It is a global problem that is hard to be solved by single countries. While accepting the existing uncertainties for the time being we can’t prevent major climate and weather disasters to take place. How shall we mitigate the increasing frequency and magnitude of climate and weather disasters whether they are natural or artificial? Though the situation can be similar to earth quakes, where we know they do take place but we do not know with certainty when, where and what to do to safe/protect our lives. Climate and weather disasters have much more devastating and irreversible impacts and threats on all life forms on the earth and can take place on much more larger scales.

http://www.lenntech.com/greenhouse-effect/global-warming-history.htm

Climate change, whether it is of natural or man-made origin, is demostrating its enormous power in creating gigamtic disasters around the globe. Yet 2014 is bringing unending news about abnormal weather conditions of threats never known before in modern history.

The Typhoon Halyan (The Guardian 8th of May 2014), the largest and most violent Typhoon in recorded history, turned Philippines upside down in a state of chaos where more than 16 000 000 (sixteen millions) people across the country had been affected. The social welfare department provided, so far, shelter support to more than half a million of households, still 200 000 people need to be resettled and more that 52 000 families are living in tents in danger zones.

Just about two weeks ago, i.e. the last days of April 2014, a huge Tornado swept over the southern and central parts of the United States with at least 19 people dead and huge economic damages in Oklahoma, Kansas, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi of living areas, infrastructures, houses, trailers, motor homes, …… Watch the outcome of an accelerating threats of climate change that are taking place on wider scales and stronger levels. http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2014/apr/28/tornado-sweeps-across-southern-and-central-united-states-in-pictures?index=14

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/typhoon-haiyan-survivors-tacloban-philippines

Humans have always worried about weather not only on for days and short-terms but also distant future and over longer periods (climate) especially for food security, living and for creation of settlements.  Future Tellers, Horoscope or Science are different forms of predicting the unpredictable depending on cultural, social and economic conditions. For science “what you can’t measure doesn’t exist”, even though there are uncertainties in “weather/climate” sciences as such knowledge rely on models. First we develop models through existing knowledge, we keeting improving knwledge through research. Then in parallel models are developed, tested and improved untill they can reproduce the reality and if so the models become reliable and acceptable. What regards climate and weather we seek answers on when, where, how and to which extent the climate/weather would/can be, also assessing the expected disasters, damage, losses and costs. Such knowledge/data are helpful what regards management and actions.

The best journal in science “Nature, Climate Change” has published data from the most accurate model yet developed showing that annual floods in Europe will increase four fold and the associated annual costs will be 23.5 bn Euros by the middle of the century. About 2/3 of these changes are due to human development and not by climate change. It is clear now that instead of assessing individual flood risks, maximum water discharges over large numbers of river basins or parts of catchments can give much better predictions what regards large-scale and long-term predictions.

Coordinated data on weather disasters and the associated impacts on population are becoming increasingly important, as the collective damage can be enormous. Abnormal weather conditions started to be more frequent probably becuase of global warming. Just during the first part of May 2014 a series of abnormal weather conditions took place in many parts in Africa and the MENA regions, below are some examples. These abnormal events of weather conditions are very rare to take place in these regions on times scales of at least several decades. These abnormal weather conditions that hit many countries in the same time-period can be an indication of large-scale phenomena/effects, but what???

6 May 2014, Burundi. Flooding kills 50 after torrential rains and storms that triggered mudslides, landslides and swept away homes, cut off roads and power, injured people, destroyed schools, houses, goods and public infrastructures. Houses in the poorer parts are often made of mud bricks and can’t resist against water and mudslides and landslides.

2 May 2014, Afghanistan. Landslide kills at least 350 because of heavy torrential rains (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj6Z_0Ty0BI&feature=youtu.be)

8 May 2014, Saudi Arabia. Flooding in Makkah (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1vxRwFRjIE)

5 May 2014, Nigeria. 50 houses in Abuja were affected by flood (http://www.talkofnaija.com/local/flood-hits-over-50-houses-in-abuja-two-days-before-african-davos)

7 May 2014, Egypt. Massive sandstorm cloud rolls over Aswan governorate; heavy rain and flooding in the Red Sea governorate; 8 May 2014 heavy rain over 15 May bridge, Cairo (http://english.ahram.org.eg/UI/Front/MultimediaInner.aspx?NewsContentID=100838&newsportalname=Multimedia)

May 09 2014, Egypt. Flooding because of rainstorms caused panic for tourists (http://www.jerusalemonline.com/news/middle-east/israel-and-the-middle-east/israeli-tourists-stranded-in-egypt-by-floods-can-cross-the-border-5221)

In production strategies, more energy means more work gets done, it can also mean more conservation in energy can generate more work. The difference between these strategies is not only saving energy to get the same amount of work but it is the enormous saving of assocaited waste and pollution which in turn means more quality life, water for healthy food and conservation of environment. This makes the essence of modern sustainability, three-fold saving “energy-water-food” with enormous feedback on health, life quality and biodiversity. In this context, a  strategic question in the use of energy for production and living is: how much is enough in energy use and consumption? Can we humans use and consume as much energy as we wish and what are the limits? Are there any roofs for our energy needs for consumption, in this case what are these roofs, how they can be defined, monitored and implemented?

Indeed, global water scarcity started to be more pronounced is not because water on our planet is becoming less but it is because our energy needs for consumption are becoming not only unrealistically high but they are currently unaffordable and even inaccessible for future generations.

Click to access Water-Energy-Nexus-FinalReport_5.pdf

Since late 1040’s, water resource management in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa including Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Yemen, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar, the occupied Palestinian territories and Western Sahara “former Spanish Sahara”) faced several negative impacts as a result of asymmetric power relations, volatile political situations, political instabilities with periodic/continuous conflicts and wars. Under such conditions water policies were mainly focused on national short-term interests for securing supply and services with little, or even no, consideration to entire water cycle, e.g. the large-scale and long-term trans-boundary nature of the water resources in regions with shared rivers and/or shared groundwater resources. Furthermore, periodic conflicts and wars hindered developing appropriate economic-political instruments for efficient water-use and flexibility to manage long-term and large-scale supply and demand. Also, Integrated Water Resource Management “IWRM” for trans-boundary waters were lacking coherent policies of equitable and reasonable use, i.e. by being based on such factors as social and economic needs, size of population, access to other water sources, etc. The added-value to national and regional programs from several international donors involved in MENA water issues (the World Bank, UNDP and USAID) was therefore rather limited.

In addition to trans-boundary political conflicts, national governance is/was hampered by a lack of coherent laws, seemingly incompatible political interests, weak environmental legislation for over-exploitation of groundwater and over-consumption of water for irrigation with associated pollution and in-economic use of water. Pesticides, herbicides, industrial pollution, agricultural and household waste resulted in serious impacts on water quality, in addition to saline intrusion of the aquifers near the seas.  

Click to access Paper12_MENA_Water_Overview_2007.pdf

Water in the MENA region is integrated into the wider economic policies of the countries of the region and therefore water issues have to be addressed to multi-sectorial audience to bring about a broad reform within the current political and economic climate.  Indeed, MENA is using more water than it receives each year and most of the countries in the MENA region cannot meet current water demands. The situation is likely to be worse and per capita water will fall by half already before 2050, with serious impacts for the region’s already stressed aquifers and natural hydrological systems.

In coming decades, economies and population structures will force enhanced demands for water supply and irrigation, in addition to new needs to address industrial and urban pollution. Future management of water resources will be further complicated as the major part of the region’s water flows across international borders and climate change will introduce complex shifts in rainfall patterns. If the MENA region will not be able to meet these combined challenges the socio-economic consequences could be enormous, e.g. erratic drinking water services, more expensive desalination for cities and there would be needs for emergency supplies during droughts. Unreliable water resources, depletion of aquifers, service outages will cause stress on expensive infrastructure, depress farmers’ incomes, intensify local/regional conflicts with short- and long-term effects on economic growth and poverty, social tensions within and between communities, and increasing pressure on public budgets.

Post 1960s water policies of securing supply and services require switch toward better water management with consideration to entire water cycle and not the separate components, also use of economic instruments for water efficiency and flexibility to manage variations supply and demand. Changes in planning should include integrating water quality and quantity and consider the entire water system, promotion of demand management, tariff reform for water supply, strengthening of government agencies and stronger enforcement of environmental regulations. Also, shift from low-value uses to higher-value needs. Equal involvement of all stakeholders in water management policies including stakeholders outside irrigation, water resource management, and water supply and sanitation, e.g. within agriculture, trade, energy, real estate, land, finance, and social protection.

Reforms for sustainable socio-economic water management should involve: political and technical policies; effective interactions with non-water decision makers; accountability of government agencies and water service to the public as well as transparency for good and bad performance.

Click to access Water_Scarcity_Full.pdf

Creation of a single electricity market in Europe has been moving in a positive direction. But, it is still a long way to go, particularly what regards the connection and integration of national electricity markets, the physical interconnections between Member States, and the promotion and facilitation of cross-border market-balancing. The same is true for the coordination of investment in generation, transmission and storage capacity. EU targets in areas such as climate change and energy security are additional challenges for achieving a single European electricity market. Renewable need to contribute to security of supply just as fossil fuel operators need to contribute to climate protection

In a single European energy market, the increasing penetration of renewables must be accommodated in a sustainable matter and this would require special considerations from the Member States. With increasing weight of renewables, the overall stability of the grid will certainly be ruined. The market is facing new challenges with the facilitation of self-consumption and peer-to-peer energy exchanges within distribution networks. Apart from technical and regulatory issues, the answers in every country are likely to differ because of the differences in energy mix and societal models. In this context, true pan-European market solutions can be favored over additional and scattered regulatory measures, as suggested below.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/04/moving-towards-the-european-super-grid?cmpid=WNL-Friday-May2-2014

The story of Iran’s nuclear ambitions to have nuclear power started already in the 1970’s upon recommendation from Ford’s administration of the US. The US, France, Germany and the UK though that Iran can be a good client for the nuclear technology and the UK started collaborating with the Shah’s of Iran on his development of nuclear power. However, the situation changed after the revolution in Iran with withdrawal of the west from further collaboration with Iran what concerns the development of nuclear power.

Under pressure from finite fossil fuel reserves and scrutiny from the West, Iran’s nuclear program has had a difficult road. Here is the story of Iranian nuclear energy told from the other side.

“Iran has tried its best to have a pragmatic approach, not an ambitious approach”, claims the country’s ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh. A climate of suspicion and hostility has historically smothered any meaningful discussion of Iran’s right to nuclear technologies. The West accuses Iran of creating a ‘confidence deficit’ by pursuing a clandestine programme of enrichment; Iran sense hypocrisy, and claim to be singled out.  Ultimately, all parties acknowledge that a system that enshrines the right of the powerful to bend the rules is unsustainable. “The whole of the non-proliferation regime has elements of double-standards built into it”, concedes David Hannay, a member of the House of Lords. But will this consensus signal a move beyond the rhetoric to purposeful negotiation? “Iran has an opportunity to become the good boy of the world.”

One central issue what concerns the globalization of high-tech industries, and other emerging sustainable technologies, is how would we achieve sustainable socio-economic development around the world that involve secure and safe use of clean energy and water resources. However, there are many important political challenges what regards raising public awareness, promotion of supporting education and research programs that can solve society and populations needs. In this context, stronger engagement of all sectors and stakeholders are required for the conservation and protection our natural resources.

Berlin, 13 April – A new report by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change “IPCC” indicates that global emissions of greenhouse gases have accelerated despite reduction efforts. The report, also, shows that many pathways to substantial emission reductions are available. As, many other atmospheric pollutants and toxic compounds are expected, also, to be associated with the emissions of greenhouse gases, then enhanced degradation in world aquatic and ecosystems will be taking place in parallel. In addition, the sites where these emissions are taking place there would be additional local and regional problems as well to the workers, in particular “high occupational levels of pollution” and the public health of individuals “air quality” in general.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1404/S00127/many-pathways-to-substantial-emissions-reductions-available.htm

By 2030 South Africa will have 60 million people, i.e. more than double of today’s population, to feed. Today’s water and energy resources are already used up for living and providing food. The only solution is SUSTAINABLE planning and recognizing the way these three resources, i.e. food, energy and water, are INTER-CONNECTED.  We need sustainability as much as sustainability needs us.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MGNxRZD4Uxs