Lessons to be learned – Flood losses in Europe to ‘increase four fold’ by 2050

Humans have always worried about weather not only on for days and short-terms but also distant future and over longer periods (climate) especially for food security, living and for creation of settlements.  Future Tellers, Horoscope or Science are different forms of predicting the unpredictable depending on cultural, social and economic conditions. For science “what you can’t measure doesn’t exist”, even though there are uncertainties in “weather/climate” sciences as such knowledge rely on models. First we develop models through existing knowledge, we keeting improving knwledge through research. Then in parallel models are developed, tested and improved untill they can reproduce the reality and if so the models become reliable and acceptable. What regards climate and weather we seek answers on when, where, how and to which extent the climate/weather would/can be, also assessing the expected disasters, damage, losses and costs. Such knowledge/data are helpful what regards management and actions.

The best journal in science “Nature, Climate Change” has published data from the most accurate model yet developed showing that annual floods in Europe will increase four fold and the associated annual costs will be 23.5 bn Euros by the middle of the century. About 2/3 of these changes are due to human development and not by climate change. It is clear now that instead of assessing individual flood risks, maximum water discharges over large numbers of river basins or parts of catchments can give much better predictions what regards large-scale and long-term predictions.

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