The Nile Basin Countries are facing two major long-term and large-scale threats that can lead to the total collapse of the water resources in the whole Nile system, i.e. from the very sources at its origin “up-stream” to its final fate at the deltas “down-stream”.  These major threats are related to climate change “global warming” and environmental degradation because of waste and pollution (from energy, industry, agriculture and household). To deal with these major threats, i.e. mitigation and solutions, the Nile Basin countries need to develop and implement sustainable management strategies/policies. In this context, achieving sustainable socio-economic developments in the Nile Basin region, which indeed applies also to the other parts of the MENA region, requires coupling public awareness, education, science and technology programs to society, population and markets needs.

The accelerating consumption of WE-resources “Water and Energy Resources” in the MENA region has huge negative long-term and large-scale impacts on achieving sustainable socio-economic developments in the whole region. The same threats are emerging in the Nile Basin region. Effective large-scale and long-term solutions are urgently required for developing and implementing WE-saving technologies in all society sectors and on all levels.

http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20130418161903

An important question for achieving sustainable socio-economic developments in any nation is: what is the limiting factor, is it water or energy? Currently, lack of access to clean water and sanitation kills children at a rate equivalent to jumbo jet crashing every four hours, this is equivalent to 3.4 million people die each year from water, sanitation and hygiene-related problems. Almost 1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water, mainly in the developing countries; the problem will still worsen as 70 percent of industrial waste is dumped untreated into waterways. The so-called emerging economies are, also, facing an accelerating threat from mismanagement of water resources that on the long run will be the most limiting factor for achieving sustainable socio-economic development.

China isn’t an exception, with its 22% of the world’s population, an access to only 5 percent of global water resources and an estimated 300 million people that lack access to safe drinking water. According to the Ministry of Water Resources in China, if China continues to consume and pollute at today’s rate, water demand will exceed supply in less than two decades. The past decades of rapid development, massive construction of infrastructure and huge industrial developments resulted in huge pollutant’s spill untreated into waterways. An estimated 50% of groundwater in cities, 77% of 26 key monitored lakes and reservoirs and 43% of 7 major river basins are considered unfit for human contact. Meanwhile, 19% of monitored rivers and basins, 35% of lakes are reservoirs are considered unfit even for agricultural or industrial use. These effects are related to China’s huge needs for energy and the associated “energy-water” nexus, e.g. 96% of China’s electric power requires water to generate, and 47% of electricity is consumed by water scarce provinces. Agriculture is by far the largest consumer of water at 62%, and the largest polluter, with pesticides and fertilizers responsible for about half the contamination of waterways. Soils are, also, facing great degradation, the average level of organic matter in soil is now 1-5% for northeastern China’s arable land, compared with 8-10% in the 1950s. A report published in 2007 by the World Bank and the Chinese government estimated the combined health and non-health cost of outdoor air and water pollution at approximately $100 billion a year, or about 5.8% of China’s GDP. Water pollution, meanwhile, worsens China’s severe water scarcity problems, with the overall cost of water shortages estimated at 1% of GDP.

Climate change has, also, negative effects in form of growing desertification and prolonged droughts in agricultural regions nationwide with impacts on drinking water and livestock as well as water levels in some of the countries major hydropower producing regions.

http://chinawaterrisk.org/resources/analysis-reviews/china-water-portrait-past-future/

Global warming whether is a natural climate change process or artificial man-made climate impacts have enormous impacts on our choices to select secure and safe solutions of human energy needs. Also, pollution and waste products from energy production and use, including accidents and disasters, makes it difficult to keep land in tact for agricultural and for suitable household uses. Modern threats from climate, waste and pollution dedicate new realities for humans in terms of limiting the diversity for appropriate, safe and secure life on earth. The   road for achieving sustainable socio-economic developments becomes more difficult once we overload it with more “time-bombs”.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/05/fukushima-japan-rebuilding-communities-with-solar-commits-to-a-100-percent-renewable-energy-by-2040?cmpid=SolarNL-Tuesday-May20-2014

Worldwide water governance has been challenged on several levels from local up to international though the existing forces are beyond human control, e.g. growing human population, increasing diversity in economic activities, enhanced competition on water resources, threats of climate disruption on water balance and availability. Sustainable management of natural resources is facing challenges in particular policy-making, the  implementation of laws, interpretation of international treaties and conventions. Examples are the trans-boundary water issues and disputes between upstream-downstream countries due to divergence in utilization of water resources for power generation, industry, agriculture and household uses. Water scarcity and security are typical issues in the MENA region and have caused disputes in the Nile Basin and Israel-Palestine area. This is, also, the case in other parts of the world, e.g. between India and Pakistan.

Other challenges are: affordable access to safe drinking water as a human right, e.g. sanitation and health issues in Sub-Saharan Africa; the needs for ways to measure access to improved water and unimproved water; the push to privatize water resources to drive efficiency and water trade; drought management and impacts of climate change. In global perspective water as a human right is not totally agreed upon, e.g. by the US and others international donors and what concerns affordability there are still more efforts to be done.

A panel discussion on contemporary challenges is given here on the sustainable use of the world’s freshwater resources, and the effectiveness of international law, e.g. international human right law, international environmental law and others, to meet existing challenges.

Among the most important indicators for life on earth are air and water qualities with poor qualities of air and water it becomes difficult, even impossible, to sustain life in any form. In some places in the world abuse of the natural resources, e.g. blind exploitation, production and use, have caused serious degradation and enormous damage, of natural environments. Exploitation, production and consumption are associated with environmental, ecological and human costs in form of “environmental, ecological and health degradation” and if such costs are not accounted for we will have negative sustainability balance. With gradual pile-up of such environmental, ecological and health debt, as is the case in the given examples, there would be no places on earth for suitable and sustainable life.          

http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/photos/the-15-most-toxic-places-to-live/earths-orbit

The following are currently considered to be the top five most sustainable cities in the world:  VANCOUVER, CANADA; SAN FRANCISCO, U.S.; OSLO, NORWAY; CURITIBA, BRAZIL; and COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.

When it comes to implementing sustainable initiatives these cities are leading the globe in how that achieved and/or can achieve sustainable cities through using renewable energy and by cutting back on emissions. Among common sustainability characteristics of these cities (http://archive.rec.org/REC/Programs/SustainableCities/Characteristics.html) are:

leadership in using and developing renewables; green transport and traffic with low emissions; strict and green buildings with improved energy efficiency and ongoing LEED-certified green building projects); high marks for air quality and clean environment; waste management with efficient and high recycling rates; reserve high percent of land to green spaces, ongoing projects for efficient electric car traffic (Vancouver and San Francisco); protected forest, parks waterways, and agriculture land (e.g. Oslo, Curitiba); intelligent lighting adjusting intensity depending on traffic conditions and weather (Oslo); bio-methane from waste to power mass transit and heating; projects for cutting carbon emissions by 50 percent in coming decades with goals to be the world’s first carbon neutral capital by 2025 (Copenhagen); heating system powered by high percent renewable energy, mainly from biomass from residual waste with plans to reach 100 percent renewable sources for heating in most the cold regions in the world (Oslo); innovative program that allows people to exchange trash for transit tokens or fresh produce (Curitiba); projects to get 50 percent of the population on two wheels by 2015 by closing down some major roads to cars and developing an additional 43 miles of bike lanes and requiring all new developments to incorporate some level of vegetation into building designs (Copenhagen).

http://www.ecomagination.com/top-five-most-sustainable-cities-in-the-world

Svante Arrhenius was the first to claim global warming to be due to “green house” gas emissions in 1896. A Swedish scientist who suggested the effects of fossil fuel on enhanced global warming. This finding was a by-product of research on the possible impacts of carbon dioxide on the great Ice Ages by Arrhenius and Chamberlin. The topic was forgotten for a very long time and it was thought than human influences were insignificant compared to the natural warming of the earth’s atmosphere by solar activity and ocean circulation. The oceans were thought to cancel out the atmospheric pollution by being carbon sinks and that water vapor was seen as a much more influential greenhouse gas.

Since 1940’s research on carbon dioxide started to expand with developments in infrared spectroscopy and impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide and water vapor on the absorption of heat. In the 1950’s and 1960’s it became clear that the ocean could never be a complete sink of carbon dioxide and the atmospheric lifetime of carbon dioxide was estimated to be about 10 years. Quantitative data that the oceans absorb nearly a third of man-made carbon dioxide was made possible by carbon-14. This radio-isotope can trace the time-space dynamics of atmospheric carbon dioxide, i.e. both natural and artificial.

In 1950’s and early 1960’s Charles Keeling used the most modern technologies to produce concentration curves for atmospheric carbon dioxide in Antarctica and Mauna Loa. The curves showed a downward trend of global annual temperature from the 1940’s to the 1970’s and it was first feared that a new ice age might be near. In the 1980’s, the global annual mean temperature curve started to rise and began to increase so steeply in late 1980’s, an upcoming new ice age was strongly questioned and the global warming theory began to win terrain fast. In 1988 it was finally acknowledged that climate was warmer than any period since 1880 and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded. In 1990’s scientists started to question the greenhouse effect theory, because of major uncertainties in the data sets and model outcomes. So far not many measures have been taken to remove all the uncertainties in climate change. It is a global problem that is hard to be solved by single countries. While accepting the existing uncertainties for the time being we can’t prevent major climate and weather disasters to take place. How shall we mitigate the increasing frequency and magnitude of climate and weather disasters whether they are natural or artificial? Though the situation can be similar to earth quakes, where we know they do take place but we do not know with certainty when, where and what to do to safe/protect our lives. Climate and weather disasters have much more devastating and irreversible impacts and threats on all life forms on the earth and can take place on much more larger scales.

http://www.lenntech.com/greenhouse-effect/global-warming-history.htm

Humans have always worried about weather not only on for days and short-terms but also distant future and over longer periods (climate) especially for food security, living and for creation of settlements.  Future Tellers, Horoscope or Science are different forms of predicting the unpredictable depending on cultural, social and economic conditions. For science “what you can’t measure doesn’t exist”, even though there are uncertainties in “weather/climate” sciences as such knowledge rely on models. First we develop models through existing knowledge, we keeting improving knwledge through research. Then in parallel models are developed, tested and improved untill they can reproduce the reality and if so the models become reliable and acceptable. What regards climate and weather we seek answers on when, where, how and to which extent the climate/weather would/can be, also assessing the expected disasters, damage, losses and costs. Such knowledge/data are helpful what regards management and actions.

The best journal in science “Nature, Climate Change” has published data from the most accurate model yet developed showing that annual floods in Europe will increase four fold and the associated annual costs will be 23.5 bn Euros by the middle of the century. About 2/3 of these changes are due to human development and not by climate change. It is clear now that instead of assessing individual flood risks, maximum water discharges over large numbers of river basins or parts of catchments can give much better predictions what regards large-scale and long-term predictions.

Coordinated data on weather disasters and the associated impacts on population are becoming increasingly important, as the collective damage can be enormous. Abnormal weather conditions started to be more frequent probably becuase of global warming. Just during the first part of May 2014 a series of abnormal weather conditions took place in many parts in Africa and the MENA regions, below are some examples. These abnormal events of weather conditions are very rare to take place in these regions on times scales of at least several decades. These abnormal weather conditions that hit many countries in the same time-period can be an indication of large-scale phenomena/effects, but what???

6 May 2014, Burundi. Flooding kills 50 after torrential rains and storms that triggered mudslides, landslides and swept away homes, cut off roads and power, injured people, destroyed schools, houses, goods and public infrastructures. Houses in the poorer parts are often made of mud bricks and can’t resist against water and mudslides and landslides.

2 May 2014, Afghanistan. Landslide kills at least 350 because of heavy torrential rains (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj6Z_0Ty0BI&feature=youtu.be)

8 May 2014, Saudi Arabia. Flooding in Makkah (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1vxRwFRjIE)

5 May 2014, Nigeria. 50 houses in Abuja were affected by flood (http://www.talkofnaija.com/local/flood-hits-over-50-houses-in-abuja-two-days-before-african-davos)

7 May 2014, Egypt. Massive sandstorm cloud rolls over Aswan governorate; heavy rain and flooding in the Red Sea governorate; 8 May 2014 heavy rain over 15 May bridge, Cairo (http://english.ahram.org.eg/UI/Front/MultimediaInner.aspx?NewsContentID=100838&newsportalname=Multimedia)

May 09 2014, Egypt. Flooding because of rainstorms caused panic for tourists (http://www.jerusalemonline.com/news/middle-east/israel-and-the-middle-east/israeli-tourists-stranded-in-egypt-by-floods-can-cross-the-border-5221)

In production strategies, more energy means more work gets done, it can also mean more conservation in energy can generate more work. The difference between these strategies is not only saving energy to get the same amount of work but it is the enormous saving of assocaited waste and pollution which in turn means more quality life, water for healthy food and conservation of environment. This makes the essence of modern sustainability, three-fold saving “energy-water-food” with enormous feedback on health, life quality and biodiversity. In this context, a  strategic question in the use of energy for production and living is: how much is enough in energy use and consumption? Can we humans use and consume as much energy as we wish and what are the limits? Are there any roofs for our energy needs for consumption, in this case what are these roofs, how they can be defined, monitored and implemented?

Indeed, global water scarcity started to be more pronounced is not because water on our planet is becoming less but it is because our energy needs for consumption are becoming not only unrealistically high but they are currently unaffordable and even inaccessible for future generations.

Click to access Water-Energy-Nexus-FinalReport_5.pdf

Since late 1040’s, water resource management in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa including Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Yemen, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar, the occupied Palestinian territories and Western Sahara “former Spanish Sahara”) faced several negative impacts as a result of asymmetric power relations, volatile political situations, political instabilities with periodic/continuous conflicts and wars. Under such conditions water policies were mainly focused on national short-term interests for securing supply and services with little, or even no, consideration to entire water cycle, e.g. the large-scale and long-term trans-boundary nature of the water resources in regions with shared rivers and/or shared groundwater resources. Furthermore, periodic conflicts and wars hindered developing appropriate economic-political instruments for efficient water-use and flexibility to manage long-term and large-scale supply and demand. Also, Integrated Water Resource Management “IWRM” for trans-boundary waters were lacking coherent policies of equitable and reasonable use, i.e. by being based on such factors as social and economic needs, size of population, access to other water sources, etc. The added-value to national and regional programs from several international donors involved in MENA water issues (the World Bank, UNDP and USAID) was therefore rather limited.

In addition to trans-boundary political conflicts, national governance is/was hampered by a lack of coherent laws, seemingly incompatible political interests, weak environmental legislation for over-exploitation of groundwater and over-consumption of water for irrigation with associated pollution and in-economic use of water. Pesticides, herbicides, industrial pollution, agricultural and household waste resulted in serious impacts on water quality, in addition to saline intrusion of the aquifers near the seas.  

Click to access Paper12_MENA_Water_Overview_2007.pdf

Water in the MENA region is integrated into the wider economic policies of the countries of the region and therefore water issues have to be addressed to multi-sectorial audience to bring about a broad reform within the current political and economic climate.  Indeed, MENA is using more water than it receives each year and most of the countries in the MENA region cannot meet current water demands. The situation is likely to be worse and per capita water will fall by half already before 2050, with serious impacts for the region’s already stressed aquifers and natural hydrological systems.

In coming decades, economies and population structures will force enhanced demands for water supply and irrigation, in addition to new needs to address industrial and urban pollution. Future management of water resources will be further complicated as the major part of the region’s water flows across international borders and climate change will introduce complex shifts in rainfall patterns. If the MENA region will not be able to meet these combined challenges the socio-economic consequences could be enormous, e.g. erratic drinking water services, more expensive desalination for cities and there would be needs for emergency supplies during droughts. Unreliable water resources, depletion of aquifers, service outages will cause stress on expensive infrastructure, depress farmers’ incomes, intensify local/regional conflicts with short- and long-term effects on economic growth and poverty, social tensions within and between communities, and increasing pressure on public budgets.

Post 1960s water policies of securing supply and services require switch toward better water management with consideration to entire water cycle and not the separate components, also use of economic instruments for water efficiency and flexibility to manage variations supply and demand. Changes in planning should include integrating water quality and quantity and consider the entire water system, promotion of demand management, tariff reform for water supply, strengthening of government agencies and stronger enforcement of environmental regulations. Also, shift from low-value uses to higher-value needs. Equal involvement of all stakeholders in water management policies including stakeholders outside irrigation, water resource management, and water supply and sanitation, e.g. within agriculture, trade, energy, real estate, land, finance, and social protection.

Reforms for sustainable socio-economic water management should involve: political and technical policies; effective interactions with non-water decision makers; accountability of government agencies and water service to the public as well as transparency for good and bad performance.

Click to access Water_Scarcity_Full.pdf

Berlin, 13 April – A new report by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change “IPCC” indicates that global emissions of greenhouse gases have accelerated despite reduction efforts. The report, also, shows that many pathways to substantial emission reductions are available. As, many other atmospheric pollutants and toxic compounds are expected, also, to be associated with the emissions of greenhouse gases, then enhanced degradation in world aquatic and ecosystems will be taking place in parallel. In addition, the sites where these emissions are taking place there would be additional local and regional problems as well to the workers, in particular “high occupational levels of pollution” and the public health of individuals “air quality” in general.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1404/S00127/many-pathways-to-substantial-emissions-reductions-available.htm

By 2030 South Africa will have 60 million people, i.e. more than double of today’s population, to feed. Today’s water and energy resources are already used up for living and providing food. The only solution is SUSTAINABLE planning and recognizing the way these three resources, i.e. food, energy and water, are INTER-CONNECTED.  We need sustainability as much as sustainability needs us.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MGNxRZD4Uxs

Increasing energy demands and pressures on Conventional Light Oil “CLO” of the Eastern Hemisphere (85% of the global inventory) have shifted the focus to Unconventional Heavy Oil “UHO” and Conventional Tar Sands “CTS” deposits around the world. The major part of “UHO” is in the Western Hemisphere (69% of the inventory), mainly the USA, while the majot part of “CTS” is being found in Canada. We have to keep in mind that the world inventories of UHO” and “CTS” may, indeed, exceed the global inventories of “CLO”.

Unconventional oil sources and oil sands are created in the same way as conventional oil—that is, through the combination of organic material, heat, and pressure. The main difference between the two is their ability to move underground. Conventional oil migrates upward due to its buoyancy. This oil moves through pathways in the underground rock in its fluid state and becomes trapped between impermeable layers of rock. Unconventional oil and oil (tar) sands, meanwhile, is formed in sealed spaces of rock, or being mixed with sand, and is not able to move up; it therefore remains in the source rock/sand, trapped in pores or unconnected pores. Unconventional oil and oil or tar sands are therefore produced and extracted using techniques other than conventional method used in Conventional Oil industries. Governments across the globe are investing in unconventional oil sources due to the increasing scarcity of conventional oil resources. 

Due to the different nature of accumulation and existence in underground formations and difficulties associated with production/extraction of unconventional oil and oil sands there are multiple of additional environmental threats and climatic impacts. Production and extraction of unconventional oil and oil sands consume much more water, have enhanced negative impacts on the environment in terms of produced waste, contamination and pollution especially what regards degradation of aquatic life, eco-systems and bio-diversity. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions from the production and extraction of unconventional oil and oil sands are relatively higher, up to 20%. Indeed, the climatic and environmental (http://blogs.worldwatch.org/revolt/unconventional-oil-implications-for-the-environment-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2/) impacts of unconventional oil and oil sands are not fully understood and consequence assessment analyses are fragmentary, incomplete and far from being representative especially what regards the large-scale and long-term impacts and threats.

http://www.greenparty.ca/sites/greenparty.ca/files/attachments/a_comprehensive_guide_to_the_alberta_oil_sands_-_may_2011_-_last_revised_march_2012.pdf