By Farid El-Daoushy*
General Introduction.
Ten years after the landmark of the Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement) and the UN Sustainable Development Goals ‘SDGs’ (https://sdgs.un.org/goals), COP30 is framed as an “implementation COP”, focusing on moving from promises to tangible actions. Both the Paris Agreement and SDGs were adopted by the United Nations in 2015 with the former aiming to limit the global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius and the later setting a broader agenda for a sustainable future. Indeed, there are several couplings between both which will be explained herewith primarily in the context of the benefits of TFFF. Over 200 million people live directly in or depend on tropical forests for their livelihood and approximately 50 million of the world’s Indigenous People (5% of world’s Indigenous population) live in or depend on tropical rainforests with the Amazon alone home to over 30 million people. However, estimates from some sources indicate that over 1.2 billion people rely on forests for their survival using trees on farms for food and income. So, in this context, TFFF will have direct and indirect impacts on these populations.
The inherent strengths in the TFFF in terms of the positive feedback impacts on the Paris Agreement and the UN-SDGs will, on the long-term perspective, turn the tides of the setbacks of the UN-SDGs since 2015. Such setbacks originated from combinations of crisis, primarily the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and the recent geopolitical conflicts in Europe and the MENA region ‘Middle East and North Africa’ because of insecurities arising from regional wars.
The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF).
TFFF Tropical Forest Forever Facility is a fund designed to support the conservation of tropical forests. The initiative of the TFFF is led by Brazil and designed in conjunction with 11 other countries, with launch scheduled for COP 30. Brazil is the host country of COP30 which is taking place in Brazil 10-21 November 2025 (https://visitbrasil.com/en/location/belem-en/) in the heart of the Amazon Rainforest. This underscores the critical link between protecting the nature and combating climate change.
The TFFF is related to, but different from, the United Nations program for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+). Apart from REDD+ which will not be treated here, the TFFF initiative is beneficial and gaining global traction, it has several challenging weaknesses what regards the balances between the economic investments and payments of the TFCs ‘Tropical Forest Countries’ on the one hand and the outcome of such investment and payments in terms of conservation efficiency of the forests and the management responsibility of the TFC-governments for the best outcomes on the other hand. In this context, modifications and improvements can ensure the success of the tropical forest conservation through Forest-Linked Loans ’FLL’. The TFFF has two arms: the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), that allocates payments to a Tropical Forest Country for conservation; and the Tropical Forests Investment Fund (TFIF) that generates funds through investments. The TFIF acts as the TFFF’s investment arm, securing capital from public and private sources to be used for the payment mechanism. According to the Brazilian government, the TFFF is supposed to be an umbrella operation composed of these two distinct arms where the TFIF will generate revenues and the Facility spends them on forest conservation through TFCs. Brazil, as the initiator of the TFFF, has indicated how it might utilize the funds, offering a practical model for other tropical forest nations. The Brazilian Ministry of Environment has suggested that TFFF resources could be used to strengthen a series of existing environmental preservation measures. The following document shows a simplified summary on TFFF in terms of (1) Who Can Access It; (2) How Does It Work; (3) Its Governance Structure; and (4) How Is It Financed (https://br.boell.org/sites/default/files/2025-11/tfff_factsheet_vf_english-1.pdf).
The TFFF is an ambitious, market-based mechanism proposed by Brazil and its partners. Its core purpose is to create a permanent, scalable financial stream to reward tropical countries for keeping existing forests standing, moving beyond paying only for new reforestation. The fundamental principle is “Pay-for-Performance” where countries receive money based on verifiable results, specifically, the number of hectares of forest they successfully conserve. The core objective of TFFF is to halt and reverse tropical deforestation by making forest conservation more economically valuable than forest conversion (e.g., for agriculture, logging). It aims to bridge the massive gap in long-term through predictable finance for forest protection. The target fund size of the Facility, up to $250 billion, would initially start with public funds from donor countries, multilateral development banks, and philanthropic organizations. This “seed capital” is crucial to launch the program and de-risk it for private investors. The TFFF is designed to attract large-scale private investment, as well, by using public money to guarantee returns and absorb potential losses. The capital structure is often envisioned in layers: “First Loss” Capital (Junior Tranche) to be provided by public and philanthropic donors. This layer will absorb the initial losses if a country fails to meet its targets, protecting the private investors. This will also act as a key to attract private capita; the second layer “Commercial Capital” (Senior Tranche) will be provided by private investors (e.g. pension funds, asset managers, insurance companies). This layer is protected by the junior tranche and receives a lower, but more secure, return. The entire process can be visualized as a continuous cycle of measurement, verification, and payment, as illustrated in the following flowchart:
For a certain tropical country participating in the TFFF a historical forest cover baseline, as a first step, is established for the country, likely through using several years of satellite data in combination with supplementary national data, if available. This baseline is expected to represent “business-as-usual” trajectory of forest loss. The second step will involve the performance of the country through annual monitoring and verification, each year. The country’s forest cover is accurately monitored using satellite technology and ground-truthing. The following step will involve an independent scientific/technical body to verify the results. The key metric for verification is how many hectares of forest were conserved below the baseline deforestation rate. As an example: If a country’s baseline predicts a loss of 100,000 hectares, but it only loses 80,000 hectares, it has successfully conserved 20,000 hectares. The third step is the payment calculation as based on pre-defined price per hectare for the conserved area with consideration to higher payment for conserving primary, intact forests, and a standard payment for other natural forests. The total financial reward for the country for that year has to be disbursed to a recognized national entity with transparency and accountability what regards TFFF requirements against the government for direct payments to indigenous and local communities, who are the primary forest guardians, financing sustainable economic activities (e.g., agroforestry, eco-tourism), strengthening law enforcement and monitoring agencies, and for restoring degraded lands.
Unlike carbon credits, which often focus on new plantations, the TFFF prioritizes preventing the loss of existing, carbon-rich, biodiverse forests which is an innovative feature for TFFF. In the long-term perspective, the TFFF aims to tap into the vast pools of global private capital by designing a financial product with a return so as not to be solely reliant on volatile government aid. The simplicity and predictability of the TFFF in terms of “pay-per-hectare” model along with requirements to be fulfilled by the government is by far much simpler as compared to the complex carbon accounting and potentially reducing bureaucracy and providing predictable path for the income streams of conservation.
However, the TFFF comes with several challenges including critical questions what regards transparent governance and abuse through corruption so as the funds actually reach the intended beneficiaries. Countries may argue for a higher baseline to receive more payments but the process must be scientifically rigorous and politically acceptable. What regards ‘land tenure rights’ for example, the mechanism must explicitly protect the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities to ensure that they are primary beneficiaries and their territories are well recognized. Furthermore, the payments must be proven that is directly causing conservation and would not have happened otherwise. Novel instruments in politically complex regions remains a significant hurdle for convincing and attracting risk-averse private investors for long-term commitments.
In summary, the TFFF proposes a radical new way to value standing forests as a global asset. Its success will depend on overcoming immense political, financial, and technical challenges. Its launch at COP30 would represent one of the most significant concrete actions for nature and climate in decades.
Role of Global South to Promote the Paris Agreement through TFFF.
The launch of TFFF in itself is a potential victory for the Global South. It does not come by a chance, as there is a global shift in the global political landscape towards multi-polarity which is indeed in favor of more collaboration among the nations of the global south in support of other world powers. The transition to multi-polar world will strengthen the socio-economic progress in the Global South as well.
The tropical forests are mainly located in the global south with major areas located in South America (the Amazon), Central Africa (the Congo Basin) and Southeast Asia. These regions are situated as a band around the equator thus having much direct sunlight and maintain warm, humid conditions. The new financing mechanism of TFFF was created to reward countries for protecting tropical forests, with long-term predictable payments and guaranteed portion of funds for Indigenous Peoples and their local communities. The TFFF can make standing forests more profitable than clearing them and thereby creating economic incentives for conservation. The long-term financing will be based on documented satellite monitoring of the forest cover with 20% of payments will go directly to Indigenous People and their local communities who are on the front lines of forest defense. The Global South with the TFFF initiative is led by Brazil in partnership with other tropical forest nations. This is indeed, a major and unique contribution to the COP30 climate summit. The fund aims to “flop the economies of deforestation” by making forest conservation a profitable venture for countries that host these vital and essential ecosystems.
Though the multi-layered benefits of the TFFF not only for the global south but more importantly for the earth’s system as a whole, some groups have raised concerns that the TFFF could be, among others, a “trap” by not adequately addressing the underlying drivers of deforestation and by relying on financial markets that can be volatile. In this context, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research ’SIEPR’, for example, came up with an assessment for improving Tropical Forest Finance. Their assessment discussed the weaknesses of TFFF and outlined recommendations for modifications and improvements. The main outcome of such recommendations is to let payments be loans instead of grants. Forest-Linked Loans (FLL) must be paid only when the rates of deforestation are high. With FLL, sponsors and political incumbents induce future governments to conserve (https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/improving-tropical-forest-financing). With these schemes in mind the TFFF, and thereby COP30, can provide multiple-wins for the global south in terms of conservation of forests, biodiversity, eco-services and socio-economic welfare of the Indigenous People and their communities. The global community will benefit also, as the earth-system will gradually follow large-scale and long-terms routes of climate resilience. Yet, other measures are required to be taken in parallel for the complete achievement of the Paris Agreements specially that we still have emerging uncertainties in the future energy needs.
Role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Implementation of TFFF.
In the context of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not just a helpful tool without underlaying R&D foundations; it is the fundamental enabling technology that makes the entire “pay-for-performance” mechanism credible, scalable, and efficient. AI is an indispensable engine of trust and efficiency. It transforms the concept of “pay-for-performance” from a theoretical ideal into a practical, auditable, and scalable global system by providing the objective, granular, and timely data needed to ensure that payments are truly earned. This is simply as representative and reliable data is imperative: what can’t be measured, can’t be controlled and what can’t be measured properly and can’t be controlled appropriately. This is especially true when there are many components, each with own uncertainty, that need to be coordinated. AI would be intricately woven into every stage of the TFFF process, where every stage forms part of overall monitoring system for payment. The following flowchart shows how AI integrates and enables the core TFFF mechanism:
Detailed breakdown of the specific roles AI would play in the TFFF mechanism:
1. Objective Measurement, the “Eye in the Sky” that Never Blinks, with coordinated High-Frequency Monitoring, using Satellite Technologies and High-Resolution Optical Imagery in real-time instead of using annual or quarterly reports. Data from different sources will be analyzed by AI on daily or weekly basis so as small-scale clearings and changes in the forest cover that the human eye might miss, for example, can be automatically identified and detected. In this context, multispectral Analysis (visible light, infrared and other spectral bands) will be performed by AI to assess forest health, distinguish between natural forest and plantations, and identify areas of degradation, e.g. thinning of forests that precede full-scale deforestation. AI with its powerful algorithms can compile, assess and fuse huge data-sets from multiple sources extremely fast. For example, radar data can see through clouds and thereby allow for monitoring in the rainy and humid tropical regions in combination with audio recordings from ground sensors in the forests to detect the sounds of illegal logging activities. In parallel with this, AI can scan for mentions of land clearing and for illegal mining activities in protected areas that may appear in credible social media and websites.
2. The objective, real-time and compiled measurements assisted by AI provide automated and unbiased assessment of forest changes free from human errors and thereby reduce disputes over the data and increases trust among both donor countries and recipient nations. Among the advantages of AI is the capabilities to generate real-time, high-resolution deforestation alerts to be sent directly to government agencies, indigenous communities, and TFFF verifiers, i.e. enabling rapid response on the ground. AI in this context makes human auditors much more efficient in guiding them specifically of the high-probability areas of concern for ground teams to investigate thus optimizing the existing limited resources.
3. The real-time and continuous data obtained by AI provides verifiable maps of forest loss and conservation and thereby allow for automatic and precise calculation of hectares conserved against the baseline as direct input for the payment. Predictive prognosis can be done by AI models through analyzing the historical trends and associated economic commodity prices. In combination with meteorological/weather patterns AI can provide future deforestation risk. With all these in mind the TFFF system can perform targeted payments to regions under greatest threat with maximized impact and provide early warnings to countries thus allowing them to take necessary preventative action. AI allows not only calculating the overall performance of TFFF but also to assist in managing the risks including the detection of fraud through identifying patterns that might indicate attempts to game the system.
There are challenges to deal with regarding the use of AI in the framework of TFFF which impose considerations for access to consistent and high-quality satellite data that can be obtained from free (European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel program, US Geological Survey (USGS) EarthExplorer), and commercial (Planet Labs, Maxar Technologies and ICEYE) sources depending on needs for resolution, revisit frequency and data type. Meanwhile, AI-algorithm in the used models must be transparent and their methodologies open to scrutiny to maintain trust. It is the obligations of the countries joining TFFF to invest in building local capacity of expertise in order to understand and use these AI tools for long-term ownership and success.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the core technology of the 4th Industrial Revolution; as important as the steam engine of the 1st Industrial revolution; the power generation, e.g. electrical power and telephones, of the 2ndIndustrial Revolution ‘Technological Revolution’; and the shift from analog and mechanical technologies to digital electronics and computers of the 3rd Industrial Revoltion. All these revolutions brough with them enormous increase on consumption of the energy and water resources. In particular AI is much energy and water consuming to the extent that future needs for both energy and water are now highly uncertain due to the explosive and opaque growth of AI. Managing these dual constraints, i.e. preventing AI from degrading grid instabilities and water scarcity, is one of the defining challenges of the digital age.
High-Value Projects that Beneficiary Expected to Implement.
The following summarizes the key areas for high-value projects that are expected to be implemented by beneficiary countries within the framework of TFFF concept.
(A) General foundation for strengthening governance and land-tenure through which strategic key areas and projects will be implemented and promoted including operational bio-economy. The TFFF operates on a unique principle that empowers beneficiary countries and is designed to generate long-term impacts. For example, a core feature of the TFFF is that beneficiary countries will have sovereignty over how they spend the payments to implement programs for capacity building to support the foundational stages for implementing the TFFF, e.g. capacity building of professionals through dedicated Research and Developments programs, training and practices that allow enhanced value chain and market creation. This means that projects can be tailored to national and local priorities, provided they serve overarching conservation outcomes through strengthening governance and land tenure by being supported by performance-based funding and national bio-economy strategies. This flexibility allows countries to address their most pressing environmental and social challenges.
Unlike short-term grants, the TFFF by being based on large-scale, predictable, and long-term funding will provide financial stability, in addition to being a significant added value in itself, to allow countries to plan and execute their long-term conservation strategies rather than one-off projects. The foundational structure of the high-value projects described here, is designed to complement other forest finance programs, such as REDD+ and forest carbon markets, by providing a consistent baseline of support.
(B) Development and promotion of bio-projects to be supported by core allocation principle for Indigenous People and Local Communities. Among structural requirements for TFFF funding is the direct support to communities by directing at least 20% of funds to Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs) to support forest guardian initiatives, land regularization, and sustainable economic activities. This is among key pillars for strengthening National Conservation Policies (NCP) and expanding existing national programs for environmental services payment (PSA), bio-economy promotion, and green initiatives like Brazil’s Bolsa Verde program (a social program that provides financial incentives to families in extreme poverty for conservation activities in protected areas). The predictable and large-scale funding directed to Indigenous People and local communities will allow to generate income from standing forests, such as developing bio-economy value chains, sustainable agroforestry, eco-tourism, and in creating alternatives to deforestation-driven economies. This includes supporting bio-economy for high-value bio-products, e.g. bio-plastics, enzymes, cosmetics, bio-pharmaceuticals; for production of advanced bio-materials for mass-timber construction and bio-degradable packaging; for food-security, e.g. cassava flour, novel foods and animal feed; for promotion of clean bio-energy, e.g. bio-fuels, bio-gas, bio-ethanol from waste and crops. These are actions to encourage the bio-economy and to stimulate sustainable economic sectors that depend on the standing forest, such as the sustainable harvesting of non-timber forest products.
Based on the above, TFFF can act as critical catalyst that makes it possible through:
1. Providing Start-up Capital and De-risking Investment to provide the initial grants, loans, or infrastructure needed to kick-start bio-economy ventures, which often struggle to secure traditional financing.
2. Building Capacity and Value Chains to train local communities in sustainable harvesting and business skills, build processing facilities, and develop marketing and distribution channels to reach global markets.
3. Formalizing Land Tenure and Community Rights for securing the land rights of Indigenous and local communities, who are the primary custodians of the forest and central actors in a sustainable bio-economy.
4. Creating Stable Economic Floors for communities and governments to reduce the immediate economic pressure to convert forest land for short-term gain, also giving the slower-to-establish bio-economy sectors time to become profitable.
Bio-economy as a ‘Core Economic Alternative’ the TFFF Aims to Foster and its Implications for the Less Developed Rural Regions.
The bio-economy, as economic model, uses renewable biological resources from land and sea (crops, forests, fish, animals, and microorganisms) sustainably to produce food, materials, energy, and other products. For TFFF and forest conservation, the bio-economy is specifically about creating economic value from standing, healthy forest ecosystem without destroying such eternal natural resources. It is the direct antithesis of “cut-and-burn” model of deforestation for cattle ranching or soy monoculture, so bio-economy is an essential part of circular economy which is antithesis of linear economy. While the linear model is based on “take-make-dispose”, the circular economy model is structured to restore and generate by minimizing waste and keeping the resources in use for as long as possible through reuse-repair-recycle. Tropical forests are not just collection of trees, they are essential parts of a healthy and wealthy global water cycle and the fertile soils by being integral parts of the whole bio- and ecospheres.
Forest bio-economy is, therefore, based on economic and sustainable models for large-scale commodity production for the global markets by Indigenous People and local communities. This will indeed provide new mechanisms for, among others, eradication of poverty (UN-SDG 1); reduction of hunger (UN-SDG 2); achieving gender equality (UN-SDG 5); promoting decent work and economic growth (UN-SDG 8); reducing inequalities UN-SDG 10); and for advancing responsible consumption and production (UN-SDG 12). In this sense, bio-economy can contribute enormously in counteracting the severe socio-economic disparities existing in the less developed communities of rural areas. So, in general the TFFF is a win-win instrument with multiple benefits for effective and sustainable coupling of rural regions to urban areas in many parts of the world. In addition, the general foundation for governance and land-tenure through strategic project development (Flowchart A) is likely to generate new rural innovations for affordable and clean energy (UN-SDG 7) and more robust rural-urban infrastructures (UN-SDG 9) with sustainable cities and responsible communities (UN-SDG 11). Indeed, the fast urbanization, especially in the global south, has promoted the migration of people from rural regions, including tropical forests, to cities and urban areas with booms of slums. The integral outcome of these benefits will further contribute in providing good health and well-being (UN-SDG 3); and supporting solutions for quality education (UN-SDG 4); also advances in clean water and sanitation (UN-SDG 6) with general feedback impacts on improved life on land (UN-SDG 15) and the life below water (UN-SDG 14) as well. All of these will further allow strengthening peace, justice and strong institutions (UN-SDG 16); support the climate action (UN-SDG 13); the global partnership for goals (UN-SDG 17). These indeed, the whole package of the seventeen UN-SDGs. Meanwhile, the promotion and implementation of new multi-scale socio-economic-environment infrastructures, as given above, would require parallel advances of relevant R&D and Innovation supplemented by actions on the ground to yield successful forest-based projects by the counties joining the TFFF. In essence, the TFFF and the bio-economy are two sides of the same coin. The TFFF provides the financial incentive to keep the forest standing, while the bio-economy creates the long-term, self-sustaining economic reason for it to remain standing. Together, they form a powerful strategy to make conservation the most economically rational choice.
The bio-economy is not a single activity but a diverse portfolio of interconnected sectors. Here are its key components, which TFFF funding could support:
1. Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) and Value Addition involving harvesting and commercially enhancing products that the forest provides naturally, without cutting down trees including (1) Foods & Beverages: Fruits (like açaí, cupuaçu, and camu camu), nuts (Brazil nuts), seeds, mushrooms, and heart of palm; (2) Pharmaceuticals & Cosmetics: Plant-based extracts, oils (like andiroba and copaiba), and resins used in medicines, creams, and lotions; and (3) Fibers & Materials: Natural fibers for textiles, dyes, bioplastics, and sustainable construction materials. Partnership with scientific institutions to validate and scale these products will be needed.
2. Sustainable Timber and Wood Products which is unlike clear-cutting is based, there is sustainable forest management approach through carefully harvesting only a few trees per hectare over long cycles (e.g., 30 years), allowing for the full regeneration of forests; obtaining certifications like FSC (Forest Stewardship Council) to access premium markets that pay more for sustainably sourced wood; and creating high-quality furniture, flooring, and crafts locally, rather than just exporting raw logs, to capture more of the final product’s value.
3. Bio-innovation and Technology, this is high-tech frontier of bio-economy where biological resources are transformed into novel products by benefitting from: using microorganisms or enzymes to turn forest biomass into advanced eco-friendly biofuels, biodegradable plastics, and specialty chemicals; and replacing petroleum-based ingredients in industrial processes with green forest-derived alternatives.
4. Services and Knowledge-Based Economy where the forest itself becomes a platform for generating revenue through services such as: ecotourism and agroforestry tourism thus creating high-value experiences for tourists who want to see the pristine rainforest and are eager to learn about its biodiversity, and have the potential and capacity to interact with local cultures; carbon sequestration through conservation and preservation of forests to act as massive carbon sink that can be accounted for in national climate goals and other carbon-credit markets; bioprospecting which is based on systematic search for new compounds, genes, and organisms in the forest that can be used in medicine, agriculture, and industry, often done through partnerships with research institutes.
Impacts of TFFF on the Global Water Cycle.
The TFFF is designed to protect tropical forests, with their role to regulate the global water cycle. By a financial incentive to keep forests standing the TFFF directly supports preserving the critical natural systems that manage freshwater and rainfall patterns. The TFFF core mechanisms supporting the preservation of the global hydrological functions are explained in the following flowchart:
Tropical forests are far more than collections of trees, they are complex eco-systems with multi-layered and interwoven interaction with the living systems that actively manage water including soils and land, associated vegetation cover, the aquatic eco-systems and the biodiversity therein. These forests are critical infrastructure that provide fresh water regulation and management for entire continents. They regulate the flow and quality of water on a massive scale. Through evapotranspiration, forests release water vapor into the atmosphere in the “Flying Aerial Rivers” which travels vast distances and influence rainfall patterns across huge regions. The Amazon, for instance, is essential for this “moisture recycling”, creating the “flying rivers” that bring rain to much of South America. In general, the water cycle as foundation of broader stability is being sustained by tropical forests which are also fundamental to other systems we rely on, including food security, sustainable agriculture, and clean water supplies.
In this context, the TFFF aims to secure these vast hydrological benefits by addressing the core economic problem: standing forests are chronically and hugely undervalued despite the essential global services they provide. By creating a predictable, long-term financial stream for conservation, the TFFF offers a practical economic alternative to deforestation for short-term gain.
Acknowledgement.
Artificial Intelligence is becoming more integrated into professional and academic work. The author utilized the DeepSeek AI language model to assist in the development of this article and in brainstorming initial concepts for the TFFF framework. The brainstorming involved several systematic questions and follow-ups on separated topics upon the request from the author. DeepSeem AI helped in generating descriptive text for flowcharts, and in summarizing complex information related the separate topics of the TFFF of the COP30. All generated content was coordinated and structured after being critically evaluated/refined, and fact-checked by the author, who assumes full responsibility for the final work.
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* Farid El-Daoushy is the founder of sustain-earth.com which is currently under construction. He is Professor emeritus and Alumnus and former Professor at Uppsala University, Institute of Physics and Astronomy.
