Volatile Politics – Economic Realities & ICT-constrains Trigger Global Instabilites

Classical and traditional top-bottom politics that ruled the world for decades, or even centuries, are facing new realities. Political promises get continuously modified or even totally violated as result of new elections that force abrupt changes in political systems and socio-economic landscape. The very reasons behind existing volatility in political systems and socio-economic landscape are:

(1) large-scale economic uncertainties because of cracking global socio-economic systems. Trumpism, Brexit, the bilateral “Germany-USA agreement” (following the example of the U.K.) and risks for collapse of the EU are examples of growing global socio-political and socio-economic multi-pole polarization with mainstream, populists, conservatives and economic elites on different sides, also any thing in between. While this division in itself is caused by new economic realities, it is likely to be the start of re-shaping and re-arranging the global economic structure and placing the rest of the world, i.e. those outside the new agreements and the political shifts, at great unknown risks (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1484871308/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&linkCode=sl1&tag=theeconomiccollapse-20&linkId=002b83f02f5dba32c7f7247fa185c3b2#productDescription_secondary_view_div_1489735945264). The U.S. elections are not simple as it may seem but very much controlled by a complex outdated left/right paradigm with elites from a double-pole polarized society or a new unification towards “making America Great Again” or generally speaking “making Single counties great again”. So, the situation is not unique for the U.S. as election in other democratic societies, e.g. in Europe/Germany, are following the trends in the U.S..  Even if Trump and Brexit are legitimate anti-establishment, there entry (an expanding example) is likely to seal the deal on the economic shakes in international banks and existing markets (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/he-won-because-elites-want-him-there-global-economy-will-collapse). It is all about the independence of Global Elites to make the move to enslave all the people of the planet, economically, socially and morally (http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/the-global-economic-collapse-is-coming-marshall-swing/). Even Germany followed the example UK and conducted its own bi-lateral agreements with the U.S. . Though there is a European Union still individual nations, e.g. Germany in this case, can conduct its own bilateral agreement with the U.S. in the sane way Germany did with China. Can anyone imagine California, Florida or Seattle to conduct bilateral agreement with the whole European Union? Such trends are contrary to the ambitions to unify EU and can even cause gradual and increasing degeneration of EU. As this can develop internal barriers between the member states regarding convergence, i.e. organized coordination and integration, of the production and labor markets in Europe as a whole. Whether such bilateral agreements between single member states in Europe and external super economic powers are good for Europe as while is being debated (http://www.ab.gov.tr/files/ardb/evt/1_avrupa_birligi/1_11_dis_iliskiler/China_Germany_and_the_EU.pdf). The lessons gained from immigration policies in Europe, that caused serious conflicts between the member states of the EU, keep unfolding in other major sectors as well. In this context Trump is gaining more success in unifying the U.S. policies what regards building strong internal production and labor market. But Europe is going in reverse direction which will create increasing socio-economic gaps among the member states of Europe.

(2) Though ICT “Information Communication Technology” is considered an instrument for promoting better decisions through increased and rapid flow of information, this seems not to be always the case. There are no guarantees that all information and communication at all times are absolutely free from biases, false interventions, fake news and “alternative facts”. However, even in best cases the “tool-and-effect” link between ICT and economic development exemplified in numerous publications is dubious and misleading. As such a link is based on a narrow economic perspective of human action which ignores recent socio-economic developments and is not informed by the evidence on processes of development that has emerged from the few countries which achieved substantial economic growth in the last decades of the 20th century. The policy analyses and recommendations of major development organizations influence the interventions of information systems professionals in developing countries with misguided perceptions and prescriptions that stifle the undertaking of situated efforts to put ICT to effective use (http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/2575/1/The_link_between_ICT_and_economic_growth_in_the_discourse_of_development_(LSERO).pdf).

Technologies enable local and individual creativity and can improve the quality of human life. However, globalization as a result of ICT has clearly resulted in the exploitation of persons, spaces, and resources in developing countries. It can ultimately be empowering if it results in greater democratization by increased access to knowledge; accountability and responsiveness to government; more effective, immediate, and widespread communication among citizens and political organizations; and more equitable work, gender, and other roles within and across political borders. The real potential of the spread of ICT rests not singly in their creation of global networks and modes of production, but in their transformation of local, more proximal, ways of living and knowing. If these technologies do not aid in changes, more equitable forms of everyday living, then the relevance of all of their other impressive features and capabilities must be questioned (https://my.vanderbilt.edu/perkins/files/2011/09/Palmer-Perkins.2012.Technological-democratization.PGDT_.pdf). ICT and development transformation despite the remarkable theoretical capabilities remains weak in forming convincing arguments on IT-enabled socio-economic development (http://learning.uonbi.ac.ke/courses/ICS419/document/ICT4D_-_Discourses_on_ICT_and_development_-LSERO-.pdf). On the contrary, contradictory, complex and conflicting socio-political information are causing an increasing divergence in the political landscape with growing global socio-political multi-pole polarization of mainstream, populists and conservatives as well as religious and immigration divide as evident from Brexit, emerging bilateral agreements between EU-member states and the U.S., and Trumpism in the U.S., and conflicts in MENA region (Turkey) and Europe. While, ICT offers many promises and opportunities, it is also posing serious risks and uncertainties. Countries must fashion own responses as passive postures are likely to lead to increasing digital and economic divides, marginalization of poor and war-victims as well as increasingly costly and burdensome government with eroding economy  (http://www.springer.com/cda/content/document/cda_downloaddocument/9781441915054-c1.pdf?SGWID=0-0-45-879448-p173923431). ICTs can offer real opportunities to improve the social and political systems if considerable efforts are made to provide adequate infrastructures, maintain and sensitize the public on the need to embrace and apply the knowledge of ICT in their social and political life (http://www.idpublications.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Full-Paper-INFORMATION-AND-COMMUNICATION-TECHNOLOGY-ICT-APPLICATION-IN-SOCIAL-AND-POLITICAL-SYSTEM.pdf).

Our modern technology, more opened and high-speed ICT-based societies with whatever form of democracy does not neccessarly mean prosperty everywhere either in developed or developing countries. It remains for everyone to find out how to take advantage of all these developments. The only way is to understand the world around us and participate in shaping and reshaping the reality that we live in. Our security and safety is not any longer a personal matter but it is rather a collective responsibility. So, we need sometimes if not often to be reminded with basic facts where knowledge (false or right) is not any longer static but it is dynamically and continuously shaping and reshaping our realities. Modern societies are not running, anymore, on primitive grounds, simple and linear rules. Not all of us have the same reality, level of comprehension of the daily life and everything around us in short- and long-term perspective. Also, with all the existing mobility and mixture of cultures as result of the so-called globalization and immigration trends. The increasing and fast flow of all types of diverse information (including contradictory ones) through the Internet and the ever expanding landscape of social-media may add additional uncertainties, if not sorted out and coordinated. The reality, as we have it today, keeps piling-up in more and more complexity. Our decisions, at least for some of us and during some periods, are therefore likely to be biased in a way or another. At the same our interests and living conditions dictate upon us new pressures and additional uncertainties. In this context, we can only understand things as we perceive and experience them in reference to our instant hopes and fears. The overall environments, circles of relations and interactions have also much impacts on our judgement in political elections and voting on candidates who will take vital decisions on our behalf, even to run our families, societies and businesses. 

We would all agree that no system (including political ones, socio-economic structures with all aspects of immigration-integration policies) whatsoever can stay stable, or reach stability, unless there is some sort of equilibrium between the overall individuals, partners or components making up the systems. 

From science and technology we know what the concept of “equilibrium” means for proper functioning and operation where safety and security are essential components. The so-called “Scientific Approach” is universally applicable with great precision anywhere and everywhere. This is true in physics, e.g. whenever there is a set of forces acting on a body, a particle or even set of forces acting systems of many bodies or many particles. Once the number of forces, bodies or particles increase the complexity of the system become more and more apparent and delicate to any small changes in the forces and the systems. Also, in chemistry where reactants in chemical reactions or series of chemical reactions are brought together to give products. For the reaction, or reactions, to proceed and give the wished products equilibrium between reactants under specific and well-defined condition of e.g. temperature, pressure and amounts reactants and order of procedures must exist. The same here with increasing number of reactants and reactions it becomes more and more difficult to have control on all the parameters that define the quality and yield of the products. without using sensitive and comprehensive monitoring and control systems it would not be possible to achieve a desired equilibrium. The same is true in natural eco-systems which are often incredibly sensitive to change. For a healthy ecosystem for example to be in equilibrium, i.e. relatively stable state that keeps population sizes within a sustainable range. Consider the case of bears (who only eat fish) and salmon (who are only hunted by bears). If the bear population grows particularly large one year, the total population will require more fish to feed it. This will make the salmon population shrink. Over time, if there are fewer salmon, there will not be enough food for all of the bears to eat. Some bears will starve and fewer cubs will be able to prosper, leading to a smaller overall population the next year. As more time passes and the bear population gets smaller, the salmon population will start to increase again due to having fewer natural predators. In a perfectly stable ecosystem, this cycle can continue indefinitely. Of course, natural ecosystems are far more complex than this simple example, but the relationship between species applies to complex ecosystems as well. When eco-systems grow in complexity the system becomes much more sensitive not only for the internal dynamics between species and the associated competition within the food-web but also the external drivers.  

In any political system with complex social mosaic, cultural evolution and religious diversity the situation become very critical even if the system is democratic, opened and dynamic but yet dependent on external dynamics. In such systems there are always shifts in the political balances which is not strange but rather natural as dissatisfaction among individuals and groups is a natural  outcome of changes in internal policies and external interactions. Large-scale and long-term equilibrium under such conditions is very sensitive to economic and information flows that regulate the stability among the population. Shifts and disorders can be therefore critical to manage even with most sofisticated corrections and mitigation measures. 

Inauguration mosaic social posts from the national mall – Donald Trump 2017 from http://sandiegonewsinfo.com/inauguration-mosaic-social-posts-from-the-national-mall/

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